E-commerce growth robust after the pandemic – new opportunities emerge

The 2023 version of The Global Payments Report by Worldpay from FIS shows a world continuing to favour digital channels for shopping and commercial activity of all kinds.

In the report, Worldpay projects that e-commerce will hit $8.5 trillion by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% across all 40 markets surveyed.

This strong growth – albeit somewhat below the heights seen during the pandemic – suggests new opportunities will emerge, especially in the cross-border environment as more countries awaken to the convenience, speed and security of online shopping.

37 of the 40 markets surveyed for The Global Payments Report are projected to see double-digit growth in e-commerce over the next three years.

In 2022, around half of the $6 trillion value of global e-commerce came from Asia, testifying to that region’s early adoption of online shopping, especially in the mobile channel by Chinese citizens.

By 2026, Worldpay’s report projects this dominance will diminish only slightly owing to more robust growth in other world regions such as the Middle East and Africa, predicted to grow at 21% CAGR over the next three years.

Asia’s continued dominance can be attributed to very rapid growth in emerging e-commerce markets such as the Philippines (predicted to grow by 18% CAGR over the period) coupled with continued strong performance in established Asian e-commerce giant China (9%).

Rising Asian giant India also showed strong performance, with growth of 16% from an already strong base of $83 billion turnover. As a percentage of the overall Indian economy Worldpay project e-commerce will rise by a third in India between 2023 and 2026.

Catching the giants

Looked at from the perspective of individual markets, a clear pattern emerges. Countries in Latin America such as Argentina (21% growth), and in the Middle East and Africa are growing at almost twice the world average.

As these markets develop their digital economies, Worldpay projects it’s likely they will fuel further growth across the board thanks to consumers seeking to shop across borders for goods and services that are less available in their home markets.

This is a pattern that’s well-established in cross-border commerce in more developed regions such as Europe.

African regional giants Nigeria and South Africa are set to see some of the highest growth rates in the world at 18% per year.

By contrast, Europe is projected to have the slowest overall growth: while e-commerce will grow by an aggregate 48% in Europe to 2026, both Asia and North America will grow by an aggregate 56%.

Meanwhile, growth in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa will hit stratospheric levels.

Aggregate growth in Latin American e-commerce is set to be 80% over the next three years, with growth rates in many African and Middle Eastern markets only slightly behind this figure.

Worldpay’s new statistics for global e-commerce growth may also have wider significance. As the digital economy becomes increasingly important to overall economic activity and South-East Asia’s share of global GDP rises[1], these figures may well reflect changes in the relative importance of the world’s regions in economic terms.

To read more about global e-commerce and the changing face of payments, download the new edition of The Global Payments Report now .

[1] See World Economics, 2 May 2023: “The Future is Asian”

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