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Visa and Mastercard heading to be the next trillion dollar companies

Soaring stock prices are propelling Visa and Mastercard up the market value charts, where they currently rank 7th and 11th among companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index. The stock prices of both Visa and Mastercard have gained roughly 50% in the past year.

While the stocks may not keep up that pace, Visa and Mastercard would each be worth over $1 trillion by 2023 if their average annual gains of the past three years were to continue, surging past the likes of Facebook and Berkshire Hathaway, if they also maintain their recent pace.

Fueling their rise is a shift toward cashless financial transactions spurred by a rise in online shopping. “Everything travels on their rails,” comments Sandy Villere, portfolio manager of the Villere Balanced Fund, which holds Visa shares. “They literally sit in the middle of the banks, consumers and merchants and that has been a really enviable place to be.”

Top US companies by market capitalisation

Visa had a market value of $449 billion and Mastercard’s stood at about $324 billion as of last week. The $1 trillion club currently includes Apple, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet. Amazon.com’s market value jumped back above $1 trillion on Friday as the stock soared on the heels of its earnings report on Thursday.

Revenue for both Visa and Mastercard nearly doubled over their past five fiscal years, to nearly $23 billion for Visa, and about $17 billion for Mastercard, according to Refinitiv data. Adjusted earnings per share more than doubled for both companies over that period.

Visa reported quarterly revenue late last week that slightly missed analyst estimates, a day after Mastercard beat quarterly profit estimates. About 43% of consumer purchases around the world excluding China are made using a digital form of payment, up from 28% in 2010, according to Lisa Ellis, senior analyst at MoffettNathanson. “Globally, we still have five to 10 years, at least, to go of penetration,” Ellis said.

Visa holds a 60% share of the credit and debit card market, followed by Mastercard with 30%, with American Express far behind at 8.5%. Despite their importance in finance, Visa and Mastercard are categorised as part of the S&P 500’s information technology sector. While Apple, Microsoft and chip companies such as Intel Corp often garner the lion’s share of attention, Visa and Mastercard have been key contributors to the rally in technology shares.

Their valuations have expanded to their most expensive in at least a decade. Visa trades at nearly 32 times forward 12 months’ earnings estimates, while Mastercard trades at 35 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream. Both stocks are trading at a higher premium to the market than they have on average over the past five years.

The big run for Visa and Mastercard shares has also come during an more than 10-year US bull market, and gains could be more muted in any downturn. Stocks started 2020 strong but have pulled back amid concerns over the spread of a virus from China.

Risks to the companies, Ellis said, include greater competition in the payment sector from big tech companies, as well as tougher regulations from governments around the world that might hinder access.

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